Another week, another glut of data to be interpreted by us college basketball bettors and fans alike as we move closer to the NCAA Tournament.
Over the past week, Duke has continued to build what could be an all-time season-long analytical profile while several other teams have continued to show their true colors in the depths of conference play.
We are ever closer to the NCAA Tournament, and the field is starting to take shape as we can continue to analyze which teams are legitimate title threats to take down the likes of the Blue Devils and Auburn, who are viewed as the two clear title threats.
Two teams should be grouped with the aforementioned two, and that’s Florida and Houston, which we will discuss below, as well as a handful of other teams in this week’s tournament preview.
As has been the case each week over the past two months, I am going to separate the contenders into three different filters with an eye on finding teams that fit historical thresholds from KenPom, the advanced metrics website that is used by many (if not all) college basketball bettors.
Here’s a refresher before we dive in.
With that in mind, I like to make three groups of teams: a group that fits the mold right now of being top 20 on both offense and defense, a group that is slightly below that, top 40 on both sides of the ball, and a team that is top 20 on one side, but outside the top 50 on the other.
2025 NCAA Tournament Betting PreviewNational Championship Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom adjO
KenPom adjD
Title Odds
Duke
24-3
1
1
2
4
+370
Auburn
25-2
2
1
1
11
+340
Houston
23-4
3
2
7
3
+750
Florida
24-3
4
1
4
7
+900
Arizona
18-9
12
4
19
18
+3500
Maryland
21-6
15
5
17
20
+5000
Duke has emerged as the best team both on paper and on the court. The team beat the second-best team, Auburn, on its home floor back in December, and it's fair for many to hypothesize that these two are on a collision course in the National Championship Game.
However, it’s never that easy.
As I try to do with these groups, I attempt to show that there are different paths to success, but the key is balance on both sides of the ball. While Arizona and Maryland may figure to be undervalued darlings come the NCAA Tournament, the likes of Houston and Florida rate just as well as the aforementioned juggernauts over a season-long perspective.
I discussed Houston last week in this article, and the point remains that the Cougars are a legitimate threat to spoil the Duke-Auburn part in the title game, but Florida has been incredibly impressive all season long.
The Gators handled Auburn on the road in early February, showcasing that it can hang with the top of the college basketball food chain, and have the season-long metrics that show that it wasn’t a fluke. The team blows through the 20-20 threshold and is one of three teams that are top 10 on both sides of the ball (Duke and Houston join them) with size to win the shot volume battle and elite shot-making from all areas of the floor.
The Gators are a blur in the open court and do a great job of inducing isolation offense from the opposition while playing disciplined help defense that has paved the way for the team to rank third in effective field goal percentage allowed.
While a lot of praise has been thrown at Auburn in the loaded SEC this season, Florida has been just as good as the Tigers.
Of course, the betting market knows this with the Cougars and Gators listed third and fourth in the Futures odds, but don't just write these two off as worthy contenders to taking down the likes of Auburn and Duke.
Fringe National Championship Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom adjO
KenPom adjD
Title Odds
Tennessee
22-5
5
2
33
1
+1500
Texas Tech
21-6
7
4
10
27
+3500
Iowa State
21-6
8
3
21
9
+1800
Wisconsin
21-6
9
2
9
37
+4500
Michigan State
22-5
10
3
23
12
+4000
Saint Mary’s
25-4
18
7
39
8
+10000
Clemson
22-5
19
6
16
26
+7500
Ole Miss
19-8
22
6
37
17
+8000
Louisville
21-6
23
7
22
31
+10000
Michigan
20-6
24
4
26
23
+5000
Illinois
17-11
25
7
18
40
+10000
Marquette
20-7
28
5
32
24
+10000
Mississippi State
19-8
29
5
25
38
+10000
We have plenty of teams that qualify as just off the 20-20 pace, I like to think of them as mini versions of what is necessary with a 40-40 resume. Arbitrary, sure. Helpful for this content device? Yes.
Tennessee may be flirting with being the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and is grouped with some of the second-tier contenders, but it is tough to see this team outlasting six games in a row to win the NCAA Tournament given its current offensive form.
Now, can the offense find its stride from three and off-set some of its on-ball creation limitations?
Absolutely. Tennessee rolled through its non-conference record with an undefeated record and shot 35% from three-point range and a top 30 effective field goal percentage, but have cooled off considerably in SEC play. Of course, the schedule ramped up, but there are some clear issues with the Vols offense that may hold back what is the best defense according to KenPom this season.
Tennessee is 15th in SEC play in two-point field goal percentage and is getting to the free throw line at a below-national-average clip. The team is over-leveraged on its ball movement, 22nd in assist rate, which makes me curious if the team can win close games in March when there needs to be more self-creation at times.
The return of Zakai Zeigler has been a big boost to the team of late, he was clutch in the Vols’ road win at Texas A&M on Saturday, which also came at the same time as Chaz Lanier’s best game in months in which he hit eight threes to sink the Aggies.
It’s not all over for Tennessee by any means, but there’s a reason why this team is in the fringe title contender group and not lumped with the likes of Houston and Florida and why I have some concerns moving forward with the Vols.
Non National Championship Contenders
Tam
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom adjO
KenPom adjD
Title Odds
St. John’s
24-4
13
4
75
2
+2500
Missouri
20-7
14
5
6
53
+4000
Kentucky
18-9
16
3
5
63
+4000
Texas A&M
20-7
20
2
52
6
+4500
Kansas
18-9
21
6
56
5
+6500
UCLA
20-8
26
6
53
14
+7500
BYU
19-8
27
9
12
69
+10000
Baylor
16-11
30
9
13
66
+10000
Arkansas
16-11
36
11
79
19
+25000
UCONN
18-9
38
8
15
98
+8000
Utah State
24-4
41
9
14
117
+30000
San Diego State
18-7
42
10
120
10
+50000
West Virginia
16-11
51
10
116
16
+50000
Villanova
16-12
57
N/A
20
134
+50000
George Mason
21-6
72
N/A
203
15
+50000
UC-Irvine
23-5
73
N/A
213
13
+100000
There are several teams in here that will be placed at the top of the NCAA Tournament bracket that I will be looking to fade both on a game-to-game basis and long-term in the Futures market in the wake of the bracket being revealed.
This week I’ll key in on one of the most volatile teams in the country, Texas A&M.
The Aggies are the epitome of this group, elite at certain things but incredibly poor at others holding the team back from being a legitimate National Championship contender.
Let’s start on offense, where Texas A&M’s offense is centered around one thing, grabbing the ball off of errant shots. The team is a putrid shooting bunch, 305th in effective field goal percentage, but nobody rebounds its own misses better, ranking first in offensive rebound rate, grabbing nearly 42% of its missed shots.
Buzz Williams’ group is elite at setting the tone with its physicality, resulting in the 28th-highest free throw rate in the country, which is more of the same for the group. Texas A&M is 282nd in the country in free throw percentage at 68%, but it takes so many that the lack of efficiency is mitigated.
With a clear path to winning the shot volume battle and a compact defense that is top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, the Aggies find themselves hovering around the No. 2 and No. 3 seed line ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
However, I’m not banking on a deep run from this group (bracket dependent), due to its narrow path to win. The group also allows the seventh-highest three-point rate nationally, which can lead to the team getting run off the floor if it runs into a hot shooting bunch.
The Aggies have also run incredibly well in close games, going 8-2 in games decided by five points or fewer. Some of that can be by design with the team’s rebounding prowess and its slow tempo, but I can’t trust that style of play comes the ‘Big Dance.’
