In early high-stakes fantasy football drafts, Justin Jefferson is emerging as not only the first player drafted at the position but also, in some instances, the top overall player off the board.
In NFL player proposition betting, financial success often results from targeting high-volume players in elite offenses.
In 2022, Jefferson is projected to take on a Cooper Kupp type of role in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
Why is that so important?
RB Props: Rushing Yds | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler | Harris
QB Props: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
WR Props: Receiving Yards | Receiving TD | Kupp | Adams | Hill
Look back at Kupp’s amazing production last season while playing in a Los Angeles offense guided by O’Connell. Kupp led the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdowns (16). The former Rams offensive coordinator now takes over a Minnesota passing attack guided by veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is weaponized by one of the NFL’s best wide receiver tandems in Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
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Jefferson, who is on the cusp of becoming the best wideout in the league, is coming off record-setting production in his first two seasons in the NFL. At first glance, oddsmakers expect Jefferson to experience regression in his third season. After averaging 1,508 receiving yards per season, SI Sportsbook is projecting a potential 157.5-yard decline from that average due to the healthy return of Thielen and tight end Irv Smith.
Last season, Justin Jefferson (1,616) only finished behind Cooper Kupp (1,947) among all wideouts in receiving yards. After leading all rookies (fourth overall) in this category in 2020, the elite talent has been off to a record-setting pace. In just 33 games, Jefferson has totaled 3,016 receiving yards, the most all-time by any receiver in their first two seasons.
New Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell was the Rams' offensive coordinator the last two seasons. Many fantasy managers are enamored with the strong potential O'Connell will feature Jefferson in the same role as Kupp in the Vikings' gameplan. In many high-stakes PPR drafts, Jefferson is coming off the board among the first three picks—shockingly ahead of running backs Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey.
A deeper dive reveals that only five wide receivers (Kupp, Jefferson, Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel) surpassed 1,350.5 receiving yards in 2021. For a wideout, who has posted a stellar average of 91.4 yards per contest early in his career, bettors find a nearly 13 yards per game discount, with Jefferson only needing to average 79.4 yards over a full 17-game regular season. Take advantage of the discount for a player who will be featured prominently every week.
BET: Over 1,350.5 receiving yards (-115)
Thus far, Jefferson has increased his touchdown production from seven in his rookie campaign to 10 in his second year. Including teammate Adam Thielen, who also hauled in 10 receiving touchdowns last season, six other wideouts recorded double-digit production in this category in 2021.
Thielen, who only played in 13 games due to an ankle injury, was able to match the touchdown output of Jefferson despite 72 fewer targets. With Thielen healthy once again, it is fair to conclude that the veteran will continue to be Kirk Cousins’ security blanket in the red zone. In three seasons playing together in Minnesota, the duo have hooked up for 33 touchdowns in 44 games.
In 2022, the Vikings also will likely spread targets to fellow wideouts K.J. Osborn and Bisi Johnson as well as tight end Irv Smith. Jefferson, who ranked fourth in the NFL with 167 targets, could approach the 191 Kupp witnessed as the top focus in O’Connell’s offense. The immediate reaction here is to believe that Jefferson will easily exceed 9.5 touchdowns coming off a season of 10. However, a healthy Thielen and Smith, coupled with drawing consistent double team coverage in the red zone results in value on backing the under.
BET: Under 9.5 receiving touchdowns (-120)
Landing as the second overall betting choice to lead the NFL in receiving yards, Jefferson’s healthy +800 odds are worthy of an investment. At SI Sportsbook oddsmakers have Cooper Kupp listed as the betting favorite at +700 to lead the NFL in consecutive seasons.
Since we are already investing in the dynamic wide receiver eclipsing his receiving yardage betting projection, let’s make a correlated wager on his output resulting in the most production of any player at his position.
BET: Jefferson, Receiving yards leader (+800)
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