TAMPA — Lauren Betts has seen a lot in her career, but one thing she has never seen is another Lauren Betts. College basketball has only one of those.
The UCLA Bruins center is, in some ways, an old-school player in that she uses her size to her advantage near the basket. Betts is 6' 7" with a polished post game, and if she gets the ball in position down low, all you can really do is hope she misses, and good luck with that. She is shooting 64.9% from the floor (75% during the women’s NCAA tournament), easily the best percentage of anybody who shoots so often. Double-teaming Betts sounds better in theory than it usually is: She is an adept passer, and the Bruins excel at moving the ball around until they find an open shot.
Even the UConn Huskies cannot mirror Betts. But they could counter her with their own version of the Golden State Warriors’ famed Death Lineup: Four guards (Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, Ashlynn Shade, Kaitlyn Chen) and one Sarah Strong (Sarah Strong). Strong is only a freshman, and at 6' 2", she gives up five inches to Betts, but she is such a special player that daring Betts to guard might be UConn’s best move.
“She’s a difficult one, especially when they play their five-guard lineup, and she’s the five—whatever that means,” UCLA coach Cori Close said. “That’s a big piece to stretch us out, and that’s our most challenging lineup.”
Against the USC Trojans in the Elite Eight, Strong scored 22 points. She made four of six three-pointers and scored only four points on layups. Somebody will have to guard her on the perimeter.
UCLA prefers to keep Betts as a defensive anchor in the paint, and for good reason: Her rim protection is the main reason she was the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year. When their opponent plays a traditional center, the Bruins can play a traditional player-to-player defense. But UCLA also plays a kind of matchup zone that allows Betts to stay inside while her teammates take care of the perimeter.
Opponents should be able to force Betts to guard the perimeter—she can do it, but it’s not her strength. But the Bruins are so good at switches and adjustments that they can usually leave Betts inside without paying for it.
There are two big questions about this Final Four. One is why at least one betting market (in this case, DraftKings) has UCLA as the fourth-most likely champion, behind (in order) UConn, South Carolina and Texas. The next person who takes my gambling advice will be the first, and also an idiot, but for what it’s worth, I don’t understand the order there.
UCLA beat South Carolina by 15 in November, and yeah, that was a long time ago, but the Bruins lost just twice all year, both to USC JuJu Watkins. Then they beat the Trojans (again with Watkins) in the Big Ten title game. It’s possible the Bruins’ odds are lower because they have to play UConn in the semi … but if that’s an impossible task for UCLA, then Texas or South Carolina would have to play UConn in the final.
The second big question is: How will UConn try to counter Betts? Other teams have tried small-ball against her—teams have tried pretty much everything—and it hasn’t really worked, but nobody has tried it with the Huskies’ level of talent. Strong makes the possibility interesting: Along with her efficient scoring against USC, Strong grabbed 17 rebounds.
“Not much that Sarah does makes me go, ‘Wow, I didn’t know she could do that,’ ” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said after that game. “Maybe I’m just so high on her that there’s stuff that I saw her do in high school that I just closed my eyes and thought, ‘Wow … if you transfer this to college, I don’t think anybody’s going to be able to handle that, because nobody has anybody that has the skill set that she has.’ … Sarah impacts the game in so many ways that you just have so much confidence in her, so much belief in her. I don’t know. Can’t explain it.”
The fun part of this kind of matchup is that you never really know how it will go. Sometimes, teams go small and previously dominant players have to come off the floor. That is highly unlikely with Betts. Sometimes, teams go small and the only defensive weakness they find is their own. Auriemma will have a plan for Betts. Close will have a plan for his plan. Whoever executes their plan better will be one win away from a championship.
